Northern hemisphere summers will transmit dangerously longer heatwaves, droughts, and periods of rain even if humanity manages to top global warming at two degrees Celsius, scientists stated Monday.
With one degree of warming since pre-industrial occasions to this point, extreme weather of this sort has already become more extreme, with a single heatwave in 2003 leading to 70,000 excess deaths in Europe alone.
However, the new examine, printed in the journal Nature Climate Change, is the primary to quantify how, for much longer such occasions are likely to last if temperatures rise one other degree.
“We may see a big shift in summer weather conditions,” mentioned lead author Peter Pfleiderer, a doctoral researcher at Humboldt University in Berlin.
“Extreme weather would change into extra persistent—sizzling and dry intervals, as well as consecutive days of heavy rain, would all get longer.”
Even small increases within the duration of maximum weather occasions can have devastating impacts on human health, meals production, biodiversity, and even financial growth.
During the 2018 heatwave in Europe, for instance, several hot and dry spells—every lasting week—led to wheat yield losses of 15 % in Germany.
In the US, the previous 12 months have been the wettest on record, with large swathes of the heartland immobilized by continuous rainfall and flooding.
The study looked on the changes within the northern hemisphere climate system that may be driving more extreme weather.